Crisis, Conflict, and Diplomacy: The U.S. Response to a Changing Middle East

The Middle East has entered a new and uncharted era, where long-standing power structures have collapsed, new actors have emerged, and the region's trajectory remains uncertain. Over the past two decades, wars, revolutions, and diplomatic breakthroughs—from the rise and fall of the Islamic State to the Syrian uprising, the Yazidi genocide, and the signing of the Abraham Accords—have shaped the regional order. Yet, the past year has seen seismic shifts that have upended geopolitical calculations.

The October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the fall of Bashar al-Assad, and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as the new power in Damascus have forced a fundamental reassessment of the Middle East policy. Meanwhile, U.S.-led ceasefire negotiations between the United States, Israel, Qatar, Egypt, and Hamas underscore Washington's critical Role in shaping the region's future.

Few U.S. officials have had a closer view of these transformations than Ambassador Barbara A. Leaf, The Former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, whose distinguished career has placed her at the forefront of U.S. foreign policy in the region. From leading diplomatic efforts in Iraq, Bosnia, and the UAE to shaping U.S. policy on Iran, Syria, and counterterrorism, Ambassador Leaf has been a key figure in some of the most complex geopolitical challenges of the 21st century.

Most recently, she led the first formal U.S. diplomatic engagement in Syria in over a decade, meeting with the country's new de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Damascus. Her visit marked a turning point in U.S.-Syria relations following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad, raising urgent questions about the future of American engagement in the country and the broader region.

In this exclusive conversation, Ambassador Leaf and Omar Mohammed discussed:

• The implications of Assad's fall and the rise of HTS in Damascus
• How the U.S. is navigating shifting alliances and emerging power centers
• The Role of Diplomacy in the post-October 7 Middle East
• The U.S. strategy behind ceasefire negotiations and its broader policy vision
• What Washington's engagement in Syria means for regional stability

This timely discussion offered a rare opportunity to hear from one of America's top diplomats about the evolving nature of U.S. policy in the Middle East and the future of American engagement in an increasingly complex and unpredictable region.

On March 4, 2025, the Program on Extremism (PoE) at The George Washington University hosted an event titled “Crisis, Conflict, and Diplomacy: The U.S. Response to a Changing Middle East”. Ambassador Barbara A. Leaf, Former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, joined PoE Senior Research Fellow Omar Mohammed to discuss the evolving political and diplomatic landscape of the Middle East, particularly in the wake of Bashar al-Assad’s fall from power and the shifting dynamics across the region.

Ambassador Leaf shared her insights from her visit to Damascus after the fall of the Al-Assad regime, marking the first U.S. visit to Damasus in fourteen years. She detailed her engagements with Ahmed al-Sharaa, the de facto leader of Syria, and their exchanges on Syria’s future. Ambassador Leaf noted al-Sharaa’s deep knowledge of Syria’s issues, including the complexities of security, addressing the Kurds and longstanding regional dynamics. She observed that while al-Sharaa appeared well-prepared and sensitive to the economic challenges and implications of U.S. sanctions, he remained an enigma regarding Syria's long-term political direction, particularly in terms of governance, the role of Islamist forces, and the inclusion of Syrian civil society.

The discussion also touched upon the geopolitical effects of the end of the Assad regime. Ambassador Leaf highlighted the importance of Syria’s neighbors, including Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel, in fostering regional cooperation to ensure stability. Relations with Iraq in particular were discussed, as Ambassador Leaf described Iraq's ongoing suspicions of Syrian developments and its sense of being sidelined in regional diplomacy.

Ambassador Leaf also reflected on the broader U.S. priorities in the Middle East, highlighting the complex dynamics around the Gaza conflict, the pursuit of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and the U.S.’ ongoing efforts to navigate these tensions. The conversation concluded on a hopeful note regarding the future of the Middle East, with Ambassador Leaf emphasizing that transformative political change often requires a catalytic event to generate the necessary political will. She noted that current developments may pave the way for long-term improvement, highlighting the region’s potential for progress.