Until 2016, Twitter was the online platform of choice for English-language Islamic State (IS) sympathizers. As a result of Twitter’s counter-extremism policies - including content removal - there has been a decline in activity by IS supporters. This outcome may suggest the company’s efforts have been effective, but a deeper analysis reveals a complex, nonlinear portrait of decay. Such observations show that the fight against IS in the digital sphere is far from over. In order to examine this change over time, this report collects and reviews 845,646 tweets produced by 1,782 English-language pro-IS accounts from February 15, 2016 to May 1, 2017.
This study finds that:
- Twitter’s policies hinder sympathizers on the platform, but counter-IS practitioners should not overstate the impact of these measures in the broader fight against the organization online.
- Most accounts lasted fewer than 50 days, and the network of sympathizers failed to draw the same number of followers over time.
- The decline in activity by English-language IS sympathizers is caused by Twitter suspensions and IS’ strategic shift from Twitter to messaging platforms that offer encryption services.
- Silencing IS adherents on Twitter may produce unwanted side effects that challenge law enforcement’s ability to detect and disrupt threats posed by violent extremists.
- The rope connecting IS’ base of sympathizers to the organization’s top-down, central infrastructure is beginning to fray as followers stray from the agenda set for them by strategic communicators.
- While IS’ battlefield initiatives are a unifying theme among adherents on Twitter, the organization’s strategic messaging output about these fronts receive varying degrees of attention from sympathizers.
- Terrorist attacks do little to sustain the conversation among supporters on Twitter, despite substantive attention from IS leadership, central propaganda, and even Western mass media.
- Over time, there has been a decline in tweets following major attacks. This suggests that attacks in the West have diminishing effects in mobilizing support.
- Current events – such as the attempted coup in Turkey and the 2016 U.S. presidential election – are among the most popular topics within the sample.
- Events unrelated directly to IS cause some of the greatest spikes in activity.
- These discussions are ongoing despite Twitter’s policies.
- Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
- English-language IS sympathizers on Twitter defy straightforward analysis and convenient solutions.
- They are skilled problem-solvers in the digital sphere. Rather than ruminating over losses, angered adherents fight to be heard, either on Twitter or other digital platforms.
- Counter-IS practitioners must show a similar willingness to adapt and explore alternative ventures.
- While some collaboration is beneficial, the government cannot rely predominantly on the efforts of tech companies to counter IS and its supporters.