The expulsion of the Islamic State (IS) from Sirte and Benghazi during the past year does not entail either the end of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi’s terrorist organization in Libya, nor the end of jihadist terrorism in the country overall. Instead, IS in Libya appears to be undergoing a phase of reorganization. Lately, IS militants have been able to attack both Khalifa Haftar’s forces and the Misurata militias, who last year expelled IS from the city of Sirte. Some IS-affiliated militants regrouped south of Sirte where they were targeted by a U.S. air raid in September (the first of its type to have been conducted in Libya under the Trump administration), resulting in the deaths of 17 combatants. Although the jihadist organizations currently seem to be weak and dispersed, IS soldiers still have the capability to carry out guerilla warfare. This method of small-scale warfare benefits from the fragmentation of the Libyan counter-terrorism apparatus and the weak combat power of the allied Government of National Accord (GNA) troops.
The defeat of IS fighters in Sirte translates into less visibility and more fluidity among the remaining soldiers, with hundreds of them (mostly foreign fighters) likely wishing to return home or towards a different battlefield. These organizations are undergoing a deep process of reorganization and de-centralization into more remote areas. On September 24, 2017, IS issued a statement from Cyrenaica inciting attacks against the United States and Italy, demonstrating a renewed ability to sow propaganda. While security conditions in Libya remain unstable and the government does not have a monopoly on the use of force, the baseline conditions for a presence of jihadist groups in the country will remain.
However, rather than a “territorial” return of IS in Libya, it is more likely that Al-Qaeda, specifically Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), might take advantage of the new “human capital” from former IS and Ansar al-Sharia members, especially in the southern part of the country. After the October 4th attack in Misurata, an escalation of terrorist attacks organized by members of IS is quite probable, as the group now seeks to engage in clandestine operations aimed at further destabilizing Libyan forces.
Moreover, given the remarkable loss of territorial control, the risk that IS will try to procure alternative sources of financing and find a role in the numerous illicit businesses in the country deserves greater attention.