Insurgent Resurgence: A Discussion about the Current Developments in Syria

On December 12, 2024, the Program on Extremism at The George Washington University hosted an in-depth discussion on recent developments in Syria following fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime. This event analyzed the conditions leading up to the latest offensive, emphasizing the human dimension of the conflict and its broader implications for regional security.

As the leading faction in the offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has once again raised questions about the composition of Syria’s insurgent groups and the strategic consequences of their resurgence. The panel delved into the identity of this hardline Islamist-dominated coalition, its evolution, its rivalry with ISIS and its ambitions, while examining the implications of its role in Syria and the broader region.

In order to discuss these matters, the Program on Extremism was honored to host:

• Alhakam Shaar, Urban sociologist, The Aleppo Project.
• Wathiq Alshallal, Political Counselor at the Embassy of the Republic of Iraq, Washington DC.
• Jerome Drevon, Senior analyst on Jihad and Modern Conflict, International Crisis Group

The event was moderated by Program on Extremism Senior Fellow Sergio Altuna.

On December 12, 2024, the Program on Extremism (PoE) at The George Washington University hosted an event titled “Insurgent Resurgence: A Discussion about the Current Developments in Syria.” Panelists included Alhakam Shaar, an Urban Sociologist at the Aleppo Project, Wathiq Alllshallall, a Political Counselor at the Embassy of the Republic of Iraq in Washington D.C., and Jerone Drevon, a Senior Analyst on Jihad and Modern Conflict at the International Crisis Group. The panelists joined Senior Fellow Sergio Altuna to discuss in depth the recent developments in Syria following the fall of the al-Assad regime on December 8, 2024.

The following is a summary of their remarks:

Shaar began the conversation by touching on his connection to Syria, as he was born and raised in Aleppo (Haleb) and was forced to leave his home in 2012. Shaar recalled that when he was in high school in 2003, during the U.S. invasion of Iraq, he and his peers wanted to protest but were later discouraged from doing so. Shaar highlighted how the people of Syria were asking for reform of the regime at that time, not necessarily Bashar al-Assad’s resignation in March 2011. Shaar left Syria shortly thereafter, and his departure was followed by the rebels advancing into East Aleppo.

During the question and answer portion of the discussion, Shaar offered valuable insight into topics ranging from the factors that allowed the al-Assad regime to survive for so long, despite being a minority ruling the majority. He stated that fear was the most prominent factor, but the charisma of leaders and their positive relationships with the media also aided to the regime’s success. Shaar also discussed the most pressing issues for the Syrian government to be potentially picking a path that they are too dependent on and are change averse. Finally, Shaar covered the intricacies of the severity of the narco-trafficking crisis in recent years in Syria and how he anticipates it to still be an issue in the future.

Alshallal offered a nuanced perspective on the regional geopolitical challenges, focusing on the impacts to Iraq in light of the Syrian regime’s upheaval and the Daesh threat. In doing so, Alshallall emphasized the necessity of a methodical, step-by-step approach to addressing the dynamics between Syria and Iraq. He provided an overview of Iraq’s existing diplomatic efforts, including engagement with neighboring Arab nations and the greater global coalition to examine opportunities to engage with the Syrian government. During the Q&A, Alshallal discussed Syria’s potential for engagement with Iran’s Axis of Resistance, ultimately highlighting that though there may be some level of engagement, systematic reconstruction remains the greatest priority for a post Al-Assad Syria. Alshallal’s overall remarks were centered around the challenges to fostering Iraq’s border security, implementing preventative measures, and limiting the expansion of destabilizing forces. While acknowledging the strategic shock of these events, Alshallal remained cautiously optimistic, describing the current state of affairs as promising.

Drevon provided an intricate history and evolution of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Initially rooted in Jabhat al-Nusra, which was tied to Al-Qaeda, the group distanced itself in 2016 to remove itself from the label of global jihad and attract broader support. Drevon highlighted that 2017 was a critical turning point for HTS, marked by significant restructuring to become more organized and cohesive. Notably, Drevon suggested a potential ideological softening, with HTS showing indications of becoming more inclusive, potentially opening its ranks to a broader range of religious communities. Drevon further explained why HTS began their march towards Damascus, the potential for internal fragmentation of HTS, and what the fall of the Al-Assad regime entails for Turkey.