Replacement: The Deadliest Conspiracy

Since Anders Breivik’s deadly attack in Norway in 2011, the conspiracy theory that inspired his violence–the Great Replacement Theory–has soared in popularity among the far-right in the United States and Europe. Claiming that Western elites are deliberately replacing native white populations with non-white immigrants, the Great Replacement Theory has similarly motivated extremists such as Brenton Tarrant, Patrick Crusius, and Payton Gendron to commit copycat attacks. Now that the theory has reached the mainstream, its origins have become murkier than ever. Moderated by Research Fellow Luke Baumgartner, the virtual event on Friday, February 28, 2025, at 1:00 pm EST with Dr. José Pedro Zúquete and Jared Holt discussed the theory’s tenets and its power to inspire violence.

On February 28, 2025, the Program on Extremism (PoE) at The George Washington University hosted an event titled “Replacement: The Deadliest Conspiracy.” Panelists included Dr. José Pedro Zúquete and Jared Holt, joined by PoE Research Fellow Luke Baumgartner, to discuss the Great Replacement Theory, its origins, and how it has driven terrorist attacks inspired by its tenets. 

Dr. José Pedro Zúquete, a Research Fellow at the Institute for Social Sciences at the University of Lisbon, shared valuable insights into the origins of the Great Replacement Theory. 

Dr. Zúquete focused on the ideological drivers of the theory, such as individuals who see themselves as the only defenders of their native people and victims of the spread of globalism, multiculturalism, and immigration by non-ethnic Europeans. Additionally, Dr. Zúquete discussed how the Great Replacement is viewed as “genocide by substitution,” marking the greatest crime of the 21st century. 

Dr. Zuquéte argued that the Great Replacement Theory is compelling due to the many people who believe in at least some of its tenets. He stated that this belief validates individuals’ anxieties and fears, ultimately providing an “anchor” in a world that seems impermanent and destabilized. 

Jared Holt, a Senior Research Analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, further stated that white supremacists and white nationalist have long drawn their inspiration from Europe. 

When asked whether the Great Replacement Theory originated in Europe or the United States, Holt explained that it draws its intellectual components directly from Europe, highlighting that the theory has gained a lot of attention in mainstream politics. 

Holt described how those who subscribe to the Great Replacement believe that liberal elites in the country are engineering immigration policies that pose a direct threat to white individuals. He further illustrated that adherents of the theory often believe that political elites are intentionally curating the failure to enforce the southern border, denigrating white people and European natives, consequently fueling racial anxiety.

Holt concluded the conversation by emphasizing that the issue of immigration and social change should not be pushed to the sidelines but should spark productive and inclusive dialogue with the public to assist in considering the nuances of these issues.